There is no doubt that the coronavirus pandemic has changed life as we know it in innumerable ways for a longer period of time than any of us would have wished for. Dating back to last spring there has been a lot of speculation and lots of questions about how the pandemic might impact college admission as we know it.
Would the pandemic lead students to stay closer to home for college? Would families be willing to pay private-college tuitions for virtual learning? Would a large number of 2020 graduates take a gap year and defer college, making admission that much more competitive for 2021 graduates? Will colleges find it harder to predict and manage yield, and will that lead them to hedge their bets by admitting more students up front? Will dramatic losses of revenue put the viability of some venerable but tuition-driven colleges at risk?
We will have to stay tuned for the answers to some of those questions. Three different recently-reported data points, however, provide glimpses of troubling trends and unanticipated consequences on a couple of fronts. But are they the proverbial “canary in the coal mine,” or are they more like early returns on election night, alarming but meaningless once all the votes are counted? Answering that question requires either a soothsayer or a college admissions version of Steve Kornacki.
Several weeks ago the Common Application reported that the number of students using its platform to apply to college is 4% lower than a year ago. The decline among first generation applicants and those eligible for fee waivers is more pronounced, around 10%.
Two things are worrisome about those stats. The first is that the gap between first-gen and other Common App users widened just during the first two weeks of November. The other is that the Common App numbers may not reflect “early returns.” A year ago nearly two-thirds of Common App applicants had submitted at least one application by mid-November, and nearly half of all applications had been submitted by then. It is still early, but then again, in the words of Yogi Berra, “It gets late early around here.”
The second concerning statistic is a decline in FAFSA (Free Application for Federal Student Aid) completion. As of late November, the number of seniors completing the FAFSA was 16% lower than a year before. As with the Common App, the decline is even greater among students who most require financial assistance to make attending college a possibility. Among students attending high schools eligible for Title I funds, meaning that at least 40% of families come from low-income families, the drop in FAFSA completion is 19%. The decline is even more pronounced, 21%, among students attending high schools where Black and Hispanic students make up more than 40% of the school population.
The final set of statistics is the most troubling. Several weeks ago the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center reported that enrollment at community colleges is 9.5% lower than a year ago. The drop at four-year non-profit institutions over the same period is 2%.
The community college decline understates the problem, because the decline in first-time students at community colleges is considerably greater. In terms of race and ethnicity, enrollment among white and Asian students attending community colleges has declined approximately 19%. The percentage decrease for first-time Black, Hispanic, and Native-American community college students is closer to 28-29%. The decrease is consistent across age groups, and the decline in enrollment among men is twice that for women.
Perhaps I shouldn’t be surprised by those numbers, but I am. My expectation back in the spring was that community colleges would be more appealing for students living in the pandemic, close to home and less expensive. I certainly didn’t foresee a decline in community college enrollment.
I’m obviously not alone. A recent article in Community College Daily, a publication of the American Association of Community Colleges, described the enrollment decline as surprising and staggering.
What is not clear is why. Does virtual learning present more of a problem in a community college environment? It’s certainly the case that it’s difficult to learn a job training skill like welding virtually. Do community college students have less access to computers and the internet? Or has the economic downturn and massive loss of jobs due to the pandemic had a double effect on community college students who count on income from their jobs to pay for community college classes?
Regardless of the causes, the effects are alarming. There has been a lot of discussion recently about the hidden long-term effects of COVID-19 on individuals who may not initially seem that sick. Are there hidden long-term effects at a societal level as well, and are the numbers listed above for the Common App, the FAFSA, and community college enrollment early symptoms of those effects?
What the statistics listed above tell us is that the pandemic is impacting educational opportunity among the very people who most need access to education. That issue may pale compared with trying to prevent another spike in deaths following a nationwide surge of the virus. It may also pale with trying to combat the denial, entitlement, and moral weakness that prevent us from coming together in shared sacrifice to withstand the virus.
We shouldn’t be surprised by the statistics. We know that the pandemic has taken a greater toll both economically and in terms of public health on citizens of color and on those from socioeconomically-disadvantaged backgrounds.
Understanding the context doesn’t mean that we should accept it. The college counseling profession has an obligation to be profoundly countercultural. Access to education has always been one of the drivers of equity and opportunity in our society. For our country to be the society it aspires and claims to be, we can’t afford to leave behind a generation of young people for whom education is the path to economic security and success.
That is obviously easier said than done at a time when the pandemic has challenged individuals, institutions, and governments. Some of it has to take place at the policy level, whether it be recommitting to early childhood education, simplifying the FAFSA, or a long-term commitment to making college more affordable (not necessarily the same thing as free).
And what about our responsibilities as members of a noble profession devoted to opportunity? At an institutional level, we can be voices that net revenue should be only one of many institutional goals.
I also wonder if it’s not time for us to re-think how information about college and college admission is provided and dispersed to students and families without access to good college counseling in their schools. There is a hunger for knowledge about applying to college, and it’s a vacuum we can’t afford not to fill.
Years ago, I proposed that NACAC develop resources for parents and students to understand how college admission works. That proposal became one of the precursors to the Knowledge Center, but never took off for two reasons. One was limited resources compared with unlimited demands.
The other was a philosophical debate about the direction of the organization. NACAC saw itself as an organization serving college counselors, the professionals on the ground, whereas I have always felt that NACAC should serve college counseling. That’s a fine distinction, but as NACAC carves out a new identity for itself in its post-ethics policing future, I hope it will re-focus on living its claimed role as trusted source of information, both for professionals and the public at large, but especially for the students who should be but aren’t completing the FAFSA or attending community college.